By Noah Brasseur
Gov. Whitmer signed into law a bill known as Senate Bill 13 that would move the primary from the second Tuesday in March to the fourth Tuesday in February, beginning with the primaries in 2024. Next year, the fourth Tuesday is Feb. 24.
“As a diverse, dynamic, optimistic state where we are building the future, Michigan is an ideal place to hold an early presidential primary,” Whitmer said in a recent press release.
The change may seem frivolous or unnecessary, but early primaries have a large impact on candidate performance, according to the Brookings Institution, an American think tank. They are considered one of the most prestigious research groups in the United States.
Much of the importance around early primaries comes from a story in New Hampshire, where they near single-handedly elevated General Eisenhower as a presidential candidate. Additionally, the Granite State’s early primary would show that President Johnson had a weak campaign in 1968. He dropped out of his reelection campaign shortly after.
This trend has held since, if a candidate underperforms in an early primary, they’re likely to drop out of the race.
New Hampshire likes their importance. It is written into their laws that they must be the first primary in the country by a least a week.
Michigan’s sudden leap in the primary order is not out of nowhere. Michigan was considered a battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 elections and is regarded as a representative sample of America as a whole.
“Governor Whitmer and our state legislature know that in order to win the presidency you must win the heartland,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who represents Michigan, “That’s why Michigan is the best place to pick a president.”
The Democratic Party seems to agree. On Feb. 4, leaders ratified a plan to reorder which states would have the first primaries. The DNC, of course, cannot decide when the primaries are; they can only recommend dates and hope the state legislatures will approve them.
Michigan was raised to fifth in the reordering, in an apparent elevation of importance.
The ratified plan has its own problems, however. In it, New Hampshire would be the second state to host a primary, a violation of their state law. Additionally, Georgia’s new recommended position of fourth would need to pass a Republican-controlled legislature.
National party leaders are expected to reconvene this summer to reevaluate their plan, in case the hitches New Hampshire and Georgia present cannot be resolved.
